submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
Not everyone trades forex on a massive scale. In fact, many forex traders are small-timers. Such forex clients appreciate forex brokers’ micro accounts, some of which have the US Dollar as their base currency. Some forex micro accounts do not even have a set minimum deposit requirement. Such cheap trading options certainly make sense for ... However, few are focusing on FOREX trading psychology. according to Mr. Labwam, a financial analyst and FOREX trader at the national bank , FOREX trading consider to be the most complex trading amongst all the financial markets and the amount of efficiency in this market is very low comparing to stock market, emotions always play the major role in that kind of trading. Since the FOREX ... Investopedia is the world's leading source of financial content on the web, ranging from market news to retirement strategies, investing education to insights from advisors. Forex Spot Rate Definition - Investopedia; Forex Rates: Live Currency Rates at DailyFX; Spot vs. Forward Foreign Exchange Trading; Understanding Forex Spot Transactions - Forextraders.com; Spot Rate Definition; Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3. Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post ... When day trading foreign exchange rates, your position size, or trade size in units, is more important than your entry and exit points.You can have the best forex strategy in the world, but if your trade size is too big or small, you'll either take on too much or too little risk. And risking too much can evaporate a trading account quickly. Best Forex Brokers 2020 - Investopedia; BVI FSC Brokers 2020 - Guide For British Virgin Islands ; 9 Best Forex Brokers for 2020 - ForexBrokers.com; 5 Best MetaTrader Brokers for 2020 - ForexBrokers.com; The Definitive Guide To Forex Brokers - Strategia Forex; r/StockMarket - Reddit's front page of the stock market, financial news. Stock market news, Trading, investing, long term, short term ... How to Calculate Pip Value For Any Forex Pair or Account Currency. The Risks of Forex Trading. Time Is Running Out for a Low-Cost European Vacation. How to Determine Position Size When Forex Trading. What the Dollar Is Worth in 5 Other Currencies. How to Sell Short Currencies in the Forex Market. What Countries Use the Euro? 3 Ways to Measure the Dollar's Value. How Do Currency Exchange Rates ... Investopedia Simulator review by forextrading.biz stock trading experts, all about Investopedia simulator online trading platform, Finding out what is Investopedia simulator app.. What is Investopedia. Investopedia is a financial American website based in New York City that focuses on investing education and financial news. The website was founded by Cory Wagner and Cory Janssen in Edmonton ... Forex (FX) is the market where currencies are traded and the term is the shortened form of foreign exchange. Forex is the largest financial marketplace in the world. With no central location, it ... their potential returns for small moves in the exchange rate. In the retail forex market, leverage can be as high as 200:1 if you're trading with less than $50,000 or as low as 50:1. For example, to trade $200,000 worth of currency, if the broker is requiring 1% margin, you would only need $2,000 deposited to your account giving you leverage of 100:1. This is not as risky as it sounds, because ...
[index]          
-: SUBSCRIBE ME:- You may also like the other videos of my channel list below : 1 - Introductionto PHP 10 - print 100 - Creating a Simple Contact Form Part 1... Investopedia Video: How To Calculate Return On Investment (ROI) - Duration: 1 ... KSSM F3 Chapter 4 Scale Drawing - Duration: 13:31. M 4U Recommended for you. 13:31. #XRP #RIPPLE Moves to Scale ... Constant returns to scale F(lambdaX_1,lambdaX_2 )=lambdaF(X_1,X_2) ... LIVE FOREX TRADING 4-26-20 TradingwithPaul 388 watching. Live now; 7 Zoom Meeting Tips Every User Should Know! - Duration: 12 ... Constant returns to scale F(lambdaX_1,lambdaX_2 )=lambdaF(X_1,X_2) ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS 890,138 views. 37:53 . Tennis ... If you are wondering how our investors averages 10% a year, that is actually the rough average return of the S&P 500. Over the past 90 years, the exact average is 9.8% but 10% is a commonly used ... Y2 5) Long Run Costs - LRAC. Everything you need to know about Y2 Long Run Costs - LRAC the long run average cost curve For Products, Services and Bookings v... In this lecture, you will learn the profit maximization of a firm in perfect competition. You will learn how mc is equal to price and average revenue. For more lecture subscribe to this channel ... In this lesson, we explain and go through examples of the Price Earnings (PE Ratio). We go through the formula of how to calculate P/E ratio. We also explain... Marginal cost represents the incremental costs incurred when producing additional units of a good or service. It is calculated by taking the total change in ... This video introduces the concept of returns to scale and discusses the distinction between increasing returns to scale, decreasing returns to scale, and con...